On December 3, 2025, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the Law of Ukraine "On the State Budget of Ukraine for 2026" (No. 4695-IX). The document was drafted in consideration of parliamentary budget conclusions and the requirements of international partners, particularly in the context of the new IMF cooperation program for 2026–2029. The key budget priorities are identified as defense, security, and social resilience.
Experts from the Ukrainian Center for Independent Political Research (UCIPR) analyzed the 2026 budget from the perspective of its impact on civil society, specifically regarding opportunities for Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) as service providers and partners to the state.
Following adjustments for the second reading, the total revenue for the 2026 state budget was increased to UAH 2.9 trillion, representing a UAH 402 billion increase from 2025. Expenditures and lending are planned at UAH 4.8 trillion. Budget Deficit is expected to be 18.4% of GDP (compared to 19.4% in 2025). The need for external support remains critically high, at over UAH 2 trillion, requiring resources from the EU, the IMF, the World Bank, G7 countries, and other partners.
Positive Signals for the Civil Society Sector
The 2026 budget provides for nominal growth in social and humanitarian expenditures, which may create a "window of opportunity" to expand the role of CSOs in providing services and implementing programs in partnership with the state. Specifically, funding is increasing for:
- Social Protection: Up to UAH 468.5 billion, including support programs for persons with disabilities, care and social services, and support for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs).
- Education: UAH 278.7 billion, with an emphasis on infrastructure and investment projects.
- Healthcare: UAH 258.6 billion, specifically for rehabilitation, psychiatric care, and maternal and child health.
- IDP Support: UAH 72.6 billion.
- Veteran Policy: UAH 18.9 billion, including the creation of "veteran spaces" and social adaptation programs.
The growth in these budget lines potentially broadens the scope for competitive and contractual involvement of CSOs, co-financing of international programs, and the development of partnerships in social, rehabilitative, and educational services.
Potential Risks
At the same time, the budget presents several challenges for civil society:
- High dependence on external support: This increases the likelihood of sequesters (budget cuts) and liquidity gaps in social programs if funding is delayed.
- Debt load exceeding 100% of GDP: This will likely restrict the space for sector development in future budgets.
- Lack of systemic budget policy for direct CSO support: In the 2026 budget, CSOs are explicitly mentioned only within one program—funding for sports-related public associations—indicating a fragmented approach to sector support.
Overall, Ukraine's 2026 state budget demonstrates revenue growth and a stated reinforcement of social and humanitarian sectors, creating potential for more active civil society engagement.
However, the key risks for CSOs remain the dependence on foreign aid, a debt load exceeding 100% of GDP, and limited transparency in expenditure details, which hinders full public oversight. This makes it critically important to demand transparent, detailed expenditures, scenario planning for potential funding shortfalls, and impact assessments of revenue changes on the economy and the social sphere.
Detailed analysis at the link.
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Institutional support for UCIPR activities is provided by East Europe Foundation within the framework of the "Phoenix: The Power of Communities" project, with the support of the European Union. The content of the created materials is the sole responsibility of UCIPR and does not necessarily reflect the position of East Europe Foundation and the EU.
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